Russia Moves Towards Asia In A Geopolitical Landslide
A new Asian Russia is emerging as the European Russia looks East
The past 18 months represent a huge turning point in relations between Russia and Asia. For Moscow, strengthening relations with regional powers and their economies has become not so much a choice as a necessity. The desire of the West to inflict economic and military defeat on Russia has led to a rapid rupture of many ties between it and European states, the curtailment of investment, and a serious slowdown in international trade.
Vladivostok is about to host the 2023 Far Eastern Economic Forum (FEEF), a crucial public event and the hallmark of “Russia’s pivot to the East”. This ambitious policy was proclaimed by Moscow a little over 10 years ago, when in one of his addresses, the Russian president proclaimed the development of the country’s Far East and its integration with the world market as a national priority for the 21st century. Since 2015, the FEER itself has been gathering Russian and foreign politicians, as well as leaders of business, science, education and civil society.
On numerous occasions it has been attended by the leaders of the largest Asian states — Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and patriarch of Asia’s development policy, Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad. In other words, both Russia and its key regional partners have taken a serious attitude in their approach to Moscow’s big plans to integrate the Russian economy with the colossal and diverse political and economic system of Asia.
We must say that for Russia itself, in past years, the development of ties with Asian countries and presence in this region has never been a priority. This is due to several reasons, each of which is serious enough to move the east to the second or third place in the list of national foreign policy priorities. First, 500 years ago, Moscow solved the most important of the tasks of that time — liberation from the threat from the steppe nomads in the East; since then this area has never been threatening in terms of security. Russian power rolled to the East “like a stream that holds nothing back,” gradually occupying with waves of resettlement and administration all new spaces to the east of the Urals.
A Russia-Asia History
Russia almost never encountered obstacles or opponents that could threaten its existence. Even the clash with Japan in the early 20th century, which was perceived as a serious and offensive slap to Russian imperial vanity, was for Russia nothing more than a colonial conflict that could not pose a threat to the territorial integrity of the state. The only period when the threat from Asia was tangible was during a few decades of the 20th century. At first, Japan was a challenge; during its imperial heyday, it threatened Russian possessions in the Far East and even controlled them several times.
This threat has disappeared since the defeat of Japan in World War II. The participation of the USSR in the defeat of Tokyo in August 1945 completely solved the Japanese problem, and now its return has even less than hypothetical probability. Today, the danger may come not from Japan, but from the United States. Russia borders the US in Asia; however, due to the remoteness of Alaska itself from the contiguous United States, there are significant security problems there.
The second time Russia experienced a threat from the East was within a short period, from the mid-1960s until the late 1980s, when China’s growing ambitions came into conflict with Soviet dominance in the world socialist camp. Then the threat from Asia was clear and even forced the slow-moving Soviet regime to make special efforts to strengthen its eastern borders in case of a conflict with Beijing. However, after relations between the two great powers of Eurasia were restored, and became informally allied in recent decades, Asia lost its geopolitical relevance in terms of Russian security.
The European Era
In the economic sphere, Russia has always been closely connected with Europe and the West as a whole. There, geography itself contributed to the strengthening of cooperation and trade, so much that consistent hostility towards the Russians by Europeans themselves could not fully dismantle it. Russia and European powers have fought several times, with military forces coming from the West to destroy the Russian state, with both France and Germany attempting to do so. But even these events were not enough to discourage Russia’s taste for economic, technological and cultural partnership with Europe. In this sense, Europe is the opposite of Asia in the Russian system of external relations: it has always been a threat, but it was easiest to develop close relations during periods following the cessation of invasions and conflict.
Developing Eurasia
The regions of Russia bordering Asia have never been populated or important enough in the economic system of the country. Due to climatic and topographic factors, the eastern edge of Russia has always looked like the tip of a blade, narrowing and losing its special connection with its hilt in the central regions of the European part of the country. A narrow strip of territory suitable for habitation for large masses of the population runs along the Trans-Siberian Railway and ends in one large city — Vladivostok. That contrasts for example, with the United States, where the favourable climate of the West Coast allows it to “hold on” to the shores of the Pacific Ocean simultaneously via several large cities. This has made Moscow’s attention to the east secondary for the Russian state. Only extraordinary political will and the most fundamental changes in Russia’s position in world affairs could reverse such objective contraindications.
The development of Russia’s ties with Asia is further complicated that, from a geopolitical point of view, Russia is seriously separated from the bulk of Asian states. It is separated from Asia to the south by the vast Islamic belt of Central Asia and Afghanistan, to the southeast by gigantic China, and to the northeast by Japan.
Therefore, the development of ties between Russia and the rest of Asia requires the creation of special logistical capabilities.
Asia itself, up until 40-50 years ago, did not represent a significant part of the international system. Most of the Asian states solved their basic development problems and were focused on integration with the US-led liberal world order. But Washington, did not contribute to the establishment of horizontal ties between countries which it considered important for its own national interests. Russia was given the role of another gas station in the world order; but was supposed to serve only Western consumers.
Russia and Asia Looking Ahead
The past 18 months in fact, represents a turning point in relations between Russia and Asia. First of all, strengthening relations with regional powers and their economies has become a necessity rather than a choice for Moscow. The stated desire of the West, including Europe, to inflict economic and military defeat on Russia has led to a rapid rupture of many ties between it and European states, the curtailment of investment, and a serious slowdown in international trade.
Under these conditions, Russia needs to develop ties with Asia, where only one state — Japan — occupies a political position aligned with the United States and its NATO allies. In 2022-2023, the scale of trade and economic relations between Russia and Asian countries has increased significantly, while Vladivostok has become one of the main gates of Russian goods to world markets.
In the context of growing global turbulence, the Asian countries themselves are interested in actively trading with Russia and gradually moving to settlements in national currencies. Asia is still a difficult and often not well-known partner for Moscow, but now, for the first time in Russian history, objective conditions have arisen which compel us to turn to the East.
Source: Timofey Bordachev for the Russian International Affairs Council